The ad promoting slot machines in South Florida features an apple-cheeked girl telling her teacher it hurts when people break their promises.

Not to worry, an announcer reassures, this isn't the lottery. Money raised by Amendment 4 must supplement education funding, not replace it.

"And the politicians can't change that," a female voice declares.

But they can. The amendment that would allow Miami-Dade and Broward county residents to decide if they want slot machines at seven dog and horse tracks and jai lai frontons also would give state lawmakers authority to levy a tax on machine revenues.

But it wouldn't require them to do so.

And incoming Senate President Tom Lee says it's unlikely lawmakers would tax the revenues at the highest rate generally imposed on the parimutuel industry: 50 percent.

The rate could even be zero.

"I don't know that you could pass a tax out of this Legislature," said Lee, R-Brandon. Efforts by lawmakers to expand and tax gambling to pay for schools and other services have fallen flat in recent years, and Lee said the ads touting Amendment 4 don't make that clear.

"I think the ads are very clever politically but they are misleading," Lee said.

A spokesman for incoming House Speaker Allan Bense, R-Panama City, said Bense plans to send the matter to committees to review before weighing in on what he thinks is a good tax rate if the amendment passes. Historically, however, the Republican-dominated House has been loathe to raise taxes on any business.

Lobbyists for the gambling industry also are likely to try to bargain for a low tax rate.

"You have to bet on the Legislature and that's a bad gamble," said Rep. Randy Johnson, a Celebration Republican leading the fight to defeat Amendment 4. He represents part of the Central Florida mecca of family-oriented theme parks, which worry what slot machines could do to Florida's reputation.

Amendment supporters, which include numerous education groups, say the odds are good that lawmakers will seize the chance to raise as much as $500-million a year for schools statewide - without raising taxes for everyone else. They stress that the slot machines could be installed only at existing facilities.

"Florida's public school system is facing a financial crisis and we desperately need additional funds to help reduce class sizes or to increase teachers' salaries," said Wayne Blanton, director of the Florida School Boards Association.

Supporters also promise it won't be another lottery, which voters approved in 1986 after they were assured the revenue would supplement education dollars. Then lawmakers replaced general tax dollars with lottery revenue to cover basic education services.

"Florida's education community and the campaign for Amendment 4 understand what happened with the lottery," said former Education Commissioner Jim Horne, who is fronting efforts to pass the amendment. Horne's group, Yes for Local Control, has been endorsed by the Florida School Boards Association and the Florida Education Association.

On Tuesday, the group unveiled a proposal for a special oversight board for the slot machine revenue.

"The Citizens Oversight and Control Board will hold the Legislature accountable by guaranteeing the money provided by Amendment 4 will go to Florida's children," Horne said.

Opponents say they are skeptical the Legislature would create a board to oversee how lawmakers spend money. They say the oversight proposal is a last-ditch effort to paint a veneer of accountability over an idea that has none.

"Everybody knows this is going to be like the lottery and not a fix for education," said Paul Seago, executive director for No Casinos Inc., a group that has repeatedly fought attempts to expand gambling in Florida. It includes the state's sheriffs and police chiefs, the Humane Society of the United States and the National Coalition Against the Expansion of Gambling.

The fight between amendment supporters and opponents has become contentious with each side airing ads accusing the other of misconstruing the facts. For examples, opponents have started airing an ad that suggests that slot machines could start popping up all over the state prompting supporters to ask TV stations to stop running it.

No Casinos Inc. has raised $50,000 - all of it from the Humane Society of the United States.

Floridians for a Level Playing Field - the industry backed group fighting for the amendment - has raised almost $13-million, most of it from South Florida horse and dog tracks and jai alai frontons.

Floridians have said no to casinos in 1978, 1986 and 1994.